We publish our variance

Full research record — hypothetical.

Every strategy family × market: the last six 10-session windows and the full two-year walk-forward, including the parts that lose. We publish the dispersion (std, drawdown, losing streaks) next to the means, because a record that only shows the wins is a brochure. Generated 2026-06-05 14:22:03 UTC.

Section 1 · the operator's ask

Last 60 sessions — per family × market

2026-03-11 → 2026-06-03 · 6 non-overlapping 10-session windows · 42 family×market combos · net ticks and simulated $ at 1-lot and 3-lot · SIMULATED

FamilyMktNet ticks Net $ (1-lot)Net $ (3-lot) Win windowsPer-window
ORB anti (flip)NQ+3045$15,225$45,6755/6+143t-915t+406t+344t+2718t+349t
ORB flip (leg1)NQ+2098$10,490$31,4705/6+359t+395t-98t+101t+1110t+231t
Retest:failNQ+1672$8,360$25,0804/6-307t+24t+298t+255t+1448t-46t
PDC fadeNQ+887$4,435$13,3054/6-355t+222t+4t+307t+820t-111t
ORB anti (flip)GC+826$8,260$24,7803/6+719t-300t-258t+124t+659t-118t
ORB flip (leg1)CL+576$5,760$17,2805/6+115t+71t+209t-7t+126t+62t
PDL fadeCL+558$5,580$16,7405/6-77t+276t+68t+108t+96t+87t
PDL fadeYM+516$2,580$7,7405/6+149t+235t+12t-108t+82t+146t
ORB anti (flip)RTY+482$2,410$7,2303/6-102t+164t-18t+270t+247t-79t
ORB anti (flip)ES+419$5,238$15,7124/6+122t-149t-15t+28t+354t+79t
PDL fadeNQ+394$1,970$5,9104/6-260t+87t-80t+113t+191t+343t
Retest:failRTY+393$1,965$5,8954/6-214t+281t+51t+218t+75t-18t
ORB anti (flip)CL+368$3,680$11,0405/6+55t+103t+36t+255t+54t-135t
PDL fadeES+348$4,350$13,0505/6+24t+70t+43t-22t+186t+47t
PDL fadeGC+342$3,420$10,2603/6+284t+138t+194t-53t-46t-175t
Retest:bounceRTY+286$1,430$4,2904/6+42t+259t+12t-134t-32t+139t
PDH fadeYM+275$1,375$4,1254/6-26t+174t-2t+54t+58t+17t
PDH fadeGC+263$2,630$7,8905/6+0t+50t+54t+21t+129t+9t
Retest:failES+248$3,100$9,3003/6+168t-5t+2t-26t+118t-9t
PDC fadeCL+236$2,360$7,0805/6-106t+127t+22t+61t+41t+91t
Retest:bounceYM+235$1,175$3,5254/6+141t-176t+250t-38t+19t+39t
PDH fadeRTY+216$1,080$3,2404/6+20t+258t+46t+27t-115t-20t
Retest:bounceNQ+145$725$2,1752/6+156t+539t-148t-72t-207t-123t
Retest:failCL+136$1,360$4,0803/6-97t-112t+73t+187t+96t-11t
PDC fadeES+130$1,625$4,8755/6+12t+97t+12t+43t-36t+2t
ORB flip (leg1)ES+125$1,562$4,6883/6+0t+97t+26t-1t+56t-53t
ORB flip (leg1)RTY+89$445$1,3353/6-50t+57t-104t-47t+67t+166t
Retest:bounceES+13$162$4884/6+51t+165t+35t-94t-167t+23t
PDC fadeGC+11$110$3303/6-50t+90t+125t+74t-208t-20t
ORB flip (leg1)GC-2-$20-$602/6+217t+133t-94t-233t-6t-19t
PDC fadeYM-33-$165-$4952/6-29t+174t+61t-36t-172t-31t
PDH fadeES-47-$588-$1,7623/6+9t+129t+4t-55t-104t-30t
ORB flip (leg1)YM-52-$260-$7803/6-149t+140t+26t-46t+19t-42t
Retest:bounceCL-79-$790-$2,3702/6-183t-84t-22t-59t+105t+164t
PDL fadeRTY-155-$775-$2,3252/6+30t+166t-36t-114t-142t-59t
Retest:failYM-178-$890-$2,6703/6-49t-181t-97t+58t+69t+22t
PDH fadeCL-212-$2,120-$6,3602/6+48t-147t-8t-76t+19t-48t
Retest:failGC-321-$3,210-$9,6303/6+145t-451t-142t+133t+115t-121t
PDC fadeRTY-344-$1,720-$5,1603/6+122t+99t+31t-77t-487t-32t
PDH fadeNQ-399-$1,995-$5,9853/6+171t+516t-244t-568t-1020t+746t
ORB anti (flip)YM-460-$2,300-$6,9003/6-455t+51t-323t+167t+114t-14t
Retest:bounceGC-830-$8,300-$24,9003/6-501t+18t-23t+7t-381t+50t

Sorted by net ticks over the window. "Win windows" = how many of the six 10-session windows closed net-positive. $ columns translate ticks at each market's tick value (NQ/RTY/YM $5, ES $12.50, GC/CL $10) — simulated, not realized. Full Rule 4.41 disclosure below.

Section 2 · we publish our variance

Two years, by year — with the dispersion

Per-family by-year mean ticks/event (· n) for 2024 / 2025 / 2026, then the full-sample per-event mean ± std, max drawdown (3-lot $), and longest losing streak — SIMULATED.

FamilyMkt 2024 t/ev2025 t/ev2026 t/ev Per-event ±σMax DDStreak
ORB flip (leg1)CL+0.1·148+0.2·253+3.7·106+1.0±16-414t -$12,42011
PDL fadeCL-0.5·66-0.1·124-3.2·47-0.1±40-682t -$20,4606
ORB anti (flip)CL+1.4·148+0.8·253+4.0·106+1.6±25-212t -$6,3608
PDC fadeCL+0.0·105+0.4·184-0.7·67+0.1±22-526t -$15,7806
Retest:failCL+3.1·65-0.8·113+2.9·49+1.0±26-408t -$12,2408
Retest:bounceCL-1.6·83+1.9·140-2.5·57-0.0±27-563t -$16,8906
PDH fadeCL-0.7·82+2.4·125-8.9·62+1.2±22-483t -$14,4908
ORB anti (flip)ES+0.8·149-1.3·255+4.2·108+0.5±34-811t -$30,4128
PDL fadeES+3.9·58-7.2·102+4.4·49-0.6±42-690t -$25,8756
Retest:failES+3.9·67-3.5·111+9.3·48+1.4±40-696t -$26,1008
PDC fadeES+0.2·110-3.7·196+0.6·80-1.6±33-938t -$35,1758
ORB flip (leg1)ES-1.8·149+1.1·255+0.7·108+0.2±17-332t -$12,4508
Retest:bounceES+1.5·80+6.0·143+3.6·60+4.2±36-322t -$12,0756
PDH fadeES-2.8·83-1.8·153-2.3·60-2.0±28-779t -$29,2128
ORB anti (flip)GC-0.3·148+2.4·255+3.3·107+1.5±74-1342t -$40,2606
PDL fadeGC-4.2·56+1.3·100+2.1·50+6.4±106-1108t -$33,2407
PDH fadeGC-2.4·80-4.9·152-15.0·54-4.1±68-1334t -$40,02010
PDC fadeGC-3.0·97-1.4·159+2.3·72-0.6±72-1000t -$30,0006
ORB flip (leg1)GC-1.8·148+2.6·255+2.7·107+1.4±34-613t -$18,3907
Retest:failGC+2.6·65+4.0·98-12.3·52-1.2±82-1144t -$34,3205
Retest:bounceGC-7.0·82-2.4·155+4.3·54-2.5±87-1461t -$43,8309
ORB anti (flip)NQ-7.0·151-1.6·253+24.3·108+2.6±173-5399t -$80,98510
ORB flip (leg1)NQ-2.4·151-6.7·253+12.0·108-1.8±93-3155t -$47,3258
Retest:failNQ-9.0·65+26.5·104+36.2·45+19.2±187-1409t -$21,1355
PDC fadeNQ-1.6·109-22.7·191+11.2·79-9.3±186-7004t -$105,0609
PDL fadeNQ+1.8·54-29.4·108-45.5·45-9.0±230-3853t -$57,7955
Retest:bounceNQ+0.6·85+23.2·146-8.5·60+10.1±210-2189t -$32,8355
PDH fadeNQ-9.8·83+13.5·143-4.3·69+10.7±191-2026t -$30,3906
ORB anti (flip)RTY+1.2·149-5.7·251+4.9·106—t
Retest:failRTY-2.8·58-5.7·109+7.4·47—t
Retest:bounceRTY-6.3·91+1.9·141+3.7·59—t
PDH fadeRTY+6.7·68-4.3·116+9.9·62—t
ORB flip (leg1)RTY+1.2·149+1.6·251+0.6·106—t
PDL fadeRTY+1.9·69-8.6·120-6.9·51—t
PDC fadeRTY+6.1·115-5.8·202+3.6·83—t
PDL fadeYM-1.6·62-6.7·111+1.2·53-7.1±59-2237t -$33,5557
PDH fadeYM-1.8·76-10.5·126+6.3·50-5.3±66-2368t -$35,5207
Retest:bounceYM+0.8·87+3.1·140+1.6·67+2.1±65-815t -$12,2257
PDC fadeYM+5.8·117-2.7·201-8.8·81-0.9±66-1550t -$23,2507
ORB flip (leg1)YM+2.7·143+0.5·245-0.5·106+1.0±31-420t -$6,3008
Retest:failYM-2.8·56-1.2·104+1.7·39-1.2±68-1326t -$19,8905
ORB anti (flip)YM-0.2·143-3.1·245-4.9·106-2.7±57-1961t -$29,4158

Why show the variance? Because the std and the drawdown are the honest cost of the mean. A losing year (2024 for most fades) is on the page next to the recovery. Max drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough of the cumulative curve at 3 lots. Longest streak = consecutive losing sessions. None of this is gated — the live gate benches cold families, see the Dashboard.

Section 3

Equity curves — top 6 combos (cumulative net ticks, 2y)

Cumulative net ticks across every non-overlapping 10-session window since 2024-06, for the six combos leading the last-60 table. Ungated, full history — SIMULATED.

ORB anti (flip) · NQ+1137t cum (2y)
51 non-overlapping 10-session windows · cumulative net ticks · SIMULATED
ORB flip (leg1) · NQ-591t cum (2y)
51 non-overlapping 10-session windows · cumulative net ticks · SIMULATED
Retest:fail · NQ+3702t cum (2y)
51 non-overlapping 10-session windows · cumulative net ticks · SIMULATED
PDC fade · NQ-3466t cum (2y)
51 non-overlapping 10-session windows · cumulative net ticks · SIMULATED
ORB anti (flip) · GC+955t cum (2y)
51 non-overlapping 10-session windows · cumulative net ticks · SIMULATED
ORB flip (leg1) · CL+452t cum (2y)
51 non-overlapping 10-session windows · cumulative net ticks · SIMULATED

These are the ungated cumulative curves — the regime gate would have sat out the flat/declining stretches (that is its entire job). Shown raw so the texture, not a cherry-picked slice, is visible. How the gate works →

This is the research record — simulated history, the full unfiltered backtest. For the tamper-evident, emission-time record (every live signal hash-chained the instant it fires, before its outcome is known), see the Track Record →. The two are kept rigorously separate and never blended into one number.

Required Disclosures

CFTC RULE 4.41 — SIMULATED PERFORMANCE

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past or hypothetical performance is not indicative of future results. This is impersonal, broadcast information, not individualized trading advice.

Read the complete required disclosures — Rule 4.41, full futures & options risk, the impersonal-publisher statement, and data/simulation limitations — on the Disclosures & Risk Disclosure page.